Prelims1
Middleweight
Julian Marquez vs Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Julian Marquez
Marc-Andre Barriault
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
9-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-12
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Marquez: 82 sig / 0 TD ·
Barriault: 109 sig / 0 TD
Julian Marquez
Marc-Andre Barriault
47
Sig strikes landed
57
110
Sig strikes attempted
120
56
Total strikes landed
73
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
9-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
L1
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—