🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Flyweight
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Valentina Shevchenko
Alexa Grasso
78%
22%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
27-4-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-5-1
W8
Current streak
W4
14
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Shevchenko: 87 sig / 4 TD ·
Grasso: 59 sig / 0 TD
Valentina Shevchenko
Alexa Grasso
82
Sig strikes landed
50
156
Sig strikes attempted
121
132
Total strikes landed
94
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
281s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
27-4-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 12-2
Last 5
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
Blue corner
W4
Alexa Grasso
18-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—