Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Ciryl Gane
88%
12%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
81"
36
Age
Δ 3y
33
29-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-2
W8
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jones: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Gane: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Ciryl Gane
63
Sig strikes landed
51
96
Sig strikes attempted
112
77
Total strikes landed
66
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.0
5.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
223s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
18 fights · 17-0
Last 5
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
Blue corner
W1
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
14-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—