Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Penne
Tabatha Ricci
29%
71%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 6"
61"
40
Age
Δ 12y
28
14-10
Career record
Δ 18 pp
13-4
L1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Penne: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Ricci: 36 sig / 4 TD
Jessica Penne
Tabatha Ricci
36
Sig strikes landed
47
100
Sig strikes attempted
108
73
Total strikes landed
82
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
166s
Control time
250s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jessica Penne
14-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Tabatha Ricci
"Baby Shark"
13-4
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—