Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Augusto Sakai
Don'Tale Mayes
73%
27%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
81"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
16-6-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-9
L4
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sakai: 53 sig / 1 TD ·
Mayes: 29 sig / 0 TD
Augusto Sakai
Don'Tale Mayes
45
Sig strikes landed
43
80
Sig strikes attempted
104
71
Total strikes landed
63
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Augusto Sakai
16-6-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
Blue corner
W2
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
11-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—