Main
Women's Flyweight
Tatiana Suarez vs Montana De La Rosa
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tatiana Suarez
Montana De La Rosa
73%
27%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
14-1
Career record
Δ 39 pp
13-10-1
W5
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Suarez: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
De La Rosa: 5 sig / 0 TD
Tatiana Suarez
Montana De La Rosa
42
Sig strikes landed
25
64
Sig strikes attempted
57
68
Total strikes landed
54
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
281s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
67%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Tatiana Suarez
14-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
L1
Montana De La Rosa
13-10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—