Back to UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Main Lightweight

Jim Miller vs Alexander Hernandez

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield ·Meta Apex
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Alexander Hernandez
69% 31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
40
Age
Δ 9y
30
40-19
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-10
W3
Current streak
L2
35
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 67 sig / 0 TD · Hernandez: 108 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Alexander Hernandez
27
Sig strikes landed
37
59
Sig strikes attempted
105
42
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Jim Miller

"A-10"
40-19 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database 35 fights · 20-14
Last 5
W UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
Blue corner
L2

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—