Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Josh Parisian
Jamal Pogues
52%
48%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
34
Age
Δ 6y
27
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Parisian: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Pogues: 33 sig / 5 TD
Josh Parisian
Jamal Pogues
48
Sig strikes landed
43
91
Sig strikes attempted
89
69
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Parisian
16-8
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
Blue corner
Jamal Pogues
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27