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Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jordan Wright
Zac Pauga
72% 28%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
12-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
7-4
L3
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wright: 29 sig / 0 TD · Pauga: 59 sig / 0 TD
Jordan Wright
Zac Pauga
31
Sig strikes landed
23
52
Sig strikes attempted
31
64
Total strikes landed
33
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.60
131s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Jordan Wright

"The Beverly Hills Ninja"
12-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
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L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
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W UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
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L UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
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Blue corner
L1

Zac Pauga

"The High Chief"
7-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
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