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Prelims1 Flyweight

Allan Nascimento vs Carlos Hernandez

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Allan Nascimento
Carlos Hernandez
76% 24%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
23-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nascimento: 6 sig / 2 TD · Hernandez: 3 sig / 0 TD
Allan Nascimento
Carlos Hernandez
44
Sig strikes landed
32
95
Sig strikes attempted
78
66
Total strikes landed
57
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
261s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Allan Nascimento

"Puro Osso"
23-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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L UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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Blue corner
W1

Carlos Hernandez

11-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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