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Prelims1 Lightweight

Mateusz Rebecki vs Nick Fiore

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mateusz Rebecki
Nick Fiore
71% 29%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rebecki: 89 sig / 3 TD · Fiore: 34 sig / 1 TD
Mateusz Rebecki
Nick Fiore
40
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
42
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
195s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Mateusz Rebecki

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner

Nick Fiore

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25