Main
Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Raoni Barcelos
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Umar Nurmagomedov
Raoni Barcelos
75%
25%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
27
Age
Δ 9y
36
21-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
23-5
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nurmagomedov: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Barcelos: 13 sig / 0 TD
Umar Nurmagomedov
Raoni Barcelos
46
Sig strikes landed
36
92
Sig strikes attempted
79
61
Total strikes landed
56
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
193s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Umar Nurmagomedov
21-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
Blue corner
W1
Raoni Barcelos
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—