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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Javid Basharat vs Mateus Mendonca

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Javid Basharat
Mateus Mendonca
64% 36%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
24
W2
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Basharat: 95 sig / 3 TD · Mendonca: 29 sig / 2 TD
Javid Basharat
Mateus Mendonca
43
Sig strikes landed
39
81
Sig strikes attempted
93
66
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Javid Basharat

"The Snow Leopard"
16-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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Blue corner

Mateus Mendonca

"Bocao"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24