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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Tyson Pedro vs Modestas Bukauskas

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Tyson Pedro
Modestas Bukauskas
37% 63%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
11-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-8
W2
Current streak
L3
8
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pedro: 45 sig / 2 TD · Bukauskas: 44 sig / 0 TD
Tyson Pedro
Modestas Bukauskas
30
Sig strikes landed
23
64
Sig strikes attempted
49
48
Total strikes landed
34
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Tyson Pedro

11-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
L3

Modestas Bukauskas

"The Baltic Gladiator"
20-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—