Back to UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Prelims1 Featherweight

Josh Culibao vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski ·RAC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Josh Culibao
Melsik Baghdasaryan
61% 39%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
12-4-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-3
W2
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Culibao: 16 sig / 0 TD · Baghdasaryan: 26 sig / 0 TD
Josh Culibao
Melsik Baghdasaryan
43
Sig strikes landed
42
102
Sig strikes attempted
88
48
Total strikes landed
46
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
43s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Josh Culibao

"Kuya"
12-4-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
W UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
D UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
Blue corner
W2

Melsik Baghdasaryan

"The Gun"
9-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
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