Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jack Della Maddalena
Randy Brown
71%
29%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
26
Age
Δ 6y
33
19-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
21-8
W3
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Della Maddalena: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Brown: 11 sig / 0 TD
Jack Della Maddalena
Randy Brown
43
Sig strikes landed
45
82
Sig strikes attempted
109
45
Total strikes landed
51
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
58s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jack Della Maddalena
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W4
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—