Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Justin Tafa
Parker Porter
64%
36%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
29
Age
Δ 9y
38
8-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-10
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tafa: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Porter: 7 sig / 0 TD
Justin Tafa
Parker Porter
44
Sig strikes landed
40
94
Sig strikes attempted
77
57
Total strikes landed
62
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
58s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
8-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Parker Porter
14-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—