Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jack Jenkins
Don Shainis
65%
35%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jenkins: 82 sig / 4 TD ·
Shainis: 50 sig / 1 TD
Jack Jenkins
Don Shainis
31
Sig strikes landed
25
50
Sig strikes attempted
45
49
Total strikes landed
35
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
396s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jack Jenkins
"Phar"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
Blue corner
L1
Don Shainis
"Shameless"
12-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
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