Prelims1
Lightweight
Jamie Mullarkey vs Francisco Prado
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
·RAC Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jamie Mullarkey
Francisco Prado
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
28
Age
Δ 8y
21
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mullarkey: 59 sig / 3 TD ·
Prado: 28 sig / 0 TD
Jamie Mullarkey
Francisco Prado
45
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
90
61
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jamie Mullarkey
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
Blue corner
Francisco Prado
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21