Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Neil Magny
44%
56%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 9"
80"
36
Age
Δ 1y
36
22-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
32-15
L1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Burns: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Magny: 4 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Neil Magny
40
Sig strikes landed
39
77
Sig strikes attempted
89
59
Total strikes landed
66
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
198s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
Blue corner
W1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
28 fights · 20-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—