Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Lauren Murphy
Jessica Andrade
42%
58%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 5"
62"
40
Age
Δ 8y
31
17-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
27-15
W1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Murphy: 100 sig / 0 TD ·
Andrade: 231 sig / 1 TD
Lauren Murphy
Jessica Andrade
66
Sig strikes landed
115
162
Sig strikes attempted
181
83
Total strikes landed
114
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
17-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jessica Andrade
"Bate Estaca"
27-15
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—