Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ismael Bonfim
Terrance McKinney
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bonfim: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
McKinney: 14 sig / 0 TD
Ismael Bonfim
Terrance McKinney
22
Sig strikes landed
27
47
Sig strikes attempted
63
38
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ismael Bonfim
"Marreta"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
W1
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
19-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—