Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Nicolas Dalby
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 6y
38
15-9
Career record
Δ 16 pp
25-6-1
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alves: 66 sig / 1 TD ·
Dalby: 119 sig / 0 TD
Warlley Alves
Nicolas Dalby
38
Sig strikes landed
48
93
Sig strikes attempted
99
54
Total strikes landed
65
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Warlley Alves
15-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
25-6-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—