Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Johnny Walker
38%
62%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
82"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
17-11-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
23-10
L1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Craig: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Walker: 16 sig / 0 TD
Paul Craig
Johnny Walker
19
Sig strikes landed
23
37
Sig strikes attempted
46
29
Total strikes landed
33
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
155s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Johnny Walker
23-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—