Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Ihor Potieria
43%
57%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
41
Age
Δ 15y
27
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-9
L2
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rua: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Potieria: 21 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Ihor Potieria
36
Sig strikes landed
41
74
Sig strikes attempted
71
49
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.70
104s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
19 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ihor Potieria
"Duelist"
20-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—