Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Bonfim
Mounir Lazzez
86%
14%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
25
Age
Δ 10y
35
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bonfim: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Lazzez: 9 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Bonfim
Mounir Lazzez
46
Sig strikes landed
41
94
Sig strikes attempted
82
67
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
175s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
W1
Mounir Lazzez
"The Sniper"
12-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—