Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Melquizael Costa
33%
67%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
28
Age
Δ 1y
26
W1
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moises: 22 sig / 4 TD ·
Costa: 23 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Moises
Melquizael Costa
25
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
73
41
Total strikes landed
48
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thiago Moises
20-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26