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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Alex Morono
76% 24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
31-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
25-13
L2
Current streak
W4
15
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ponzinibbio: 66 sig / 0 TD · Morono: 38 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Alex Morono
76
Sig strikes landed
75
166
Sig strikes attempted
172
80
Total strikes landed
85
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Santiago Ponzinibbio

"Argentine Dagger"
31-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
Blue corner
W4

Alex Morono

"The Great White"
25-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 16 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—