Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paddy Pimblett
Jared Gordon
81%
19%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
24-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-9
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pimblett: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Gordon: 60 sig / 3 TD
Paddy Pimblett
Jared Gordon
41
Sig strikes landed
38
93
Sig strikes attempted
75
55
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
106s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—