Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Darren Till
Dricus Du Plessis
37%
63%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-6-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
24-3
L2
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Till: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Du Plessis: 86 sig / 6 TD
Darren Till
Dricus Du Plessis
32
Sig strikes landed
49
85
Sig strikes attempted
104
39
Total strikes landed
71
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
60s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Darren Till
"The Gorilla"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
Blue corner
W3
Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
24-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—