Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raul Rosas Jr.
Jay Perrin
87%
13%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
18
Age
Δ 11y
30
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rosas Jr.: 3 sig / 2 TD ·
Perrin: 4 sig / 0 TD
Raul Rosas Jr.
Jay Perrin
56
Sig strikes landed
41
112
Sig strikes attempted
83
67
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
220s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Raul Rosas Jr.
"El Nino Problema"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
18
Blue corner
L2
Jay Perrin
"The Joker"
10-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—