Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Bryce Mitchell
Ilia Topuria
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
19-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-0
W6
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Mitchell: 36 sig / 1 TD ·
Topuria: 40 sig / 0 TD
Bryce Mitchell
Ilia Topuria
24
Sig strikes landed
23
47
Sig strikes attempted
35
41
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.7
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
268s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
52%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
W4
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—