Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
TJ Brown
Erik Silva
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Brown: 24 sig / 2 TD ·
Silva: 21 sig / 3 TD
TJ Brown
Erik Silva
51
Sig strikes landed
41
107
Sig strikes attempted
101
76
Total strikes landed
59
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
236s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
TJ Brown
"Downtown"
17-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
Erik Silva
"The King"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36