Back to UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
🏆 Title fight Main Light Heavyweight

Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Magomed Ankalaev
44% 56%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
40
Age
Δ 9y
30
30-11-2
Career record
Δ 18 pp
22-2-1
W1
Current streak
W8
18
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Blachowicz: 55 sig / 0 TD · Ankalaev: 78 sig / 2 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Magomed Ankalaev
44
Sig strikes landed
65
96
Sig strikes attempted
127
54
Total strikes landed
91
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
47s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jan Blachowicz

30-11-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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L UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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W UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
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W UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
Blue corner
W8

Magomed Ankalaev

22-2-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
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W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—