Back to UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Prelims1 Featherweight

Marcelo Rojo vs Francis Marshall

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland ·Amway Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Marcelo Rojo
Francis Marshall
37% 63%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
34
Age
Δ 11y
24
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rojo: 31 sig / 0 TD · Marshall: 23 sig / 1 TD
Marcelo Rojo
Francis Marshall
49
Sig strikes landed
57
118
Sig strikes attempted
127
67
Total strikes landed
69
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Marcelo Rojo

"Pitbull"
16-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
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L UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
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Blue corner

Francis Marshall

"Fire"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24