Back to UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Yazmin Jauregui vs Istela Nunes

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland ·Amway Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Yazmin Jauregui
Istela Nunes
84% 16%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
24
Age
Δ 7y
30
12-2
Career record
Δ 40 pp
6-7
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Jauregui: 67 sig / 0 TD · Nunes: 36 sig / 0 TD
Yazmin Jauregui
Istela Nunes
82
Sig strikes landed
64
198
Sig strikes attempted
148
88
Total strikes landed
69
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
144s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Yazmin Jauregui

12-2
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
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Blue corner
L2

Istela Nunes

6-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
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