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Natan Levy vs Genaro Valdez

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland ·Amway Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Natan Levy
Genaro Valdez
62% 38%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
9-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Levy: 67 sig / 6 TD · Valdez: 49 sig / 0 TD
Natan Levy
Genaro Valdez
47
Sig strikes landed
39
84
Sig strikes attempted
103
58
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Natan Levy

"Lethal"
9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
Blue corner
L1

Genaro Valdez

"Rayadito"
10-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—