Back to UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Prelims1 Featherweight

Darren Elkins vs Jonathan Pearce

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland ·Amway Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Jonathan Pearce
64% 36%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
39
Age
Δ 8y
31
30-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-7
W1
Current streak
W4
26
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 57 sig / 2 TD · Pearce: 110 sig / 2 TD
Darren Elkins
Jonathan Pearce
39
Sig strikes landed
47
88
Sig strikes attempted
98
71
Total strikes landed
71
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
6.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
189s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Darren Elkins

"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 26 fights · 17-9
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
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W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
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Blue corner
W4

Jonathan Pearce

"JSP"
15-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
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W UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
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W UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
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W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
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