Prelims1
Lightweight
Michael Johnson vs Marc Diakiese
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
·Amway Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Marc Diakiese
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
36
Age
Δ 7y
30
25-21
Career record
Δ 18 pp
18-7
L1
Current streak
W2
26
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Diakiese: 55 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Marc Diakiese
43
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
114
55
Total strikes landed
64
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
48s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
26 fights · 12-14
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
Blue corner
W2
Marc Diakiese
"Bonecrusher"
18-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—