Back to UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Prelims1 Lightweight

Clay Guida vs Scott Holtzman

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland ·Amway Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Scott Holtzman
70% 30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
41
Age
Δ 2y
39
38-23
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L2
23
UFC fights in our DB
12

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guida: 66 sig / 4 TD · Holtzman: 65 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Scott Holtzman
40
Sig strikes landed
55
100
Sig strikes attempted
101
58
Total strikes landed
71
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
7.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
191s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Clay Guida

"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database 23 fights · 12-11
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
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W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
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Blue corner
L2

Scott Holtzman

"Hot Sauce"
14-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
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W UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
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W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
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