Main
Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa vs Sergei Pavlovich
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
·Amway Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tai Tuivasa
Sergei Pavlovich
30%
70%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 9"
84"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
15-11
Career record
Δ 30 pp
22-3
L1
Current streak
W4
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tuivasa: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Pavlovich: 23 sig / 0 TD
Tai Tuivasa
Sergei Pavlovich
14
Sig strikes landed
33
44
Sig strikes attempted
71
18
Total strikes landed
43
0.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
1.00
28s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
83%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W4
Sergei Pavlovich
22-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—