Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matheus Nicolau
Matt Schnell
77%
23%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-10
W3
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Nicolau: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Schnell: 20 sig / 0 TD
Matheus Nicolau
Matt Schnell
52
Sig strikes landed
34
94
Sig strikes attempted
91
64
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
115s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Matheus Nicolau
20-6-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—