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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Brady Hiestand vs Fernie Garcia

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brady Hiestand
Fernie Garcia
80% 20%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
9-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hiestand: 19 sig / 3 TD · Garcia: 21 sig / 1 TD
Brady Hiestand
Fernie Garcia
53
Sig strikes landed
45
120
Sig strikes attempted
96
86
Total strikes landed
79
2.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
267s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Brady Hiestand

"Bam Bam"
9-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
Blue corner
L1

Fernie Garcia

10-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
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