Back to UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba ·Meta Apex
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ricky Turcios
Kevin Natividad
69% 31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
13-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Turcios: 68 sig / 2 TD · Natividad: 41 sig / 7 TD
Ricky Turcios
Kevin Natividad
47
Sig strikes landed
44
130
Sig strikes attempted
122
77
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Ricky Turcios

13-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
Blue corner
L2

Kevin Natividad

"Quicksand"
9-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—