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Main Flyweight

Charles Johnson vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Charles Johnson
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
74% 26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
19-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
14-10
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Johnson: 115 sig / 0 TD · Zhumagulov: 119 sig / 1 TD
Charles Johnson
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
37
Sig strikes landed
35
74
Sig strikes attempted
63
58
Total strikes landed
50
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
186s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
60%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Charles Johnson

"InnerG"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
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Blue corner
L2

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

14-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
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L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
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W UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
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