Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tagir Ulanbekov
Nate Maness
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
17-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-4
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ulanbekov: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Maness: 4 sig / 0 TD
Tagir Ulanbekov
Nate Maness
28
Sig strikes landed
31
64
Sig strikes attempted
74
57
Total strikes landed
46
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
251s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tagir Ulanbekov
17-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nate Maness
"Mayhem"
16-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—