Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Mark Madsen
89%
11%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 9y
38
25-3-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
13-2
W1
Current streak
W4
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Dawson: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Madsen: 15 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
Mark Madsen
48
Sig strikes landed
30
103
Sig strikes attempted
72
76
Total strikes landed
46
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
7.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
327s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W4
Mark Madsen
"The Olympian"
13-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—