Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Daniel Rodriguez
61%
39%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
35
Age
Δ 0y
36
31-16
Career record
Δ 15 pp
21-5
L1
Current streak
W4
27
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Magny: 57 sig / 5 TD ·
Rodriguez: 66 sig / 0 TD
Neil Magny
Daniel Rodriguez
58
Sig strikes landed
62
127
Sig strikes attempted
116
80
Total strikes landed
76
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
27 fights · 19-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
Blue corner
W4
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
21-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—