Main
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marina Rodriguez
Amanda Lemos
62%
38%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
36
Age
36
18-6-2
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-6-1
W4
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rodriguez: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Lemos: 29 sig / 1 TD
Marina Rodriguez
Amanda Lemos
49
Sig strikes landed
48
95
Sig strikes attempted
115
79
Total strikes landed
79
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
80s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Marina Rodriguez
18-6-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Amanda Lemos
16-6-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—