Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
David Dvorak
Manel Kape
48%
52%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
20-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-7
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dvorak: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Kape: 58 sig / 0 TD
David Dvorak
Manel Kape
44
Sig strikes landed
46
111
Sig strikes attempted
112
53
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
98s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
David Dvorak
"Undertaker"
20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
Blue corner
W2
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
23-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—